Late in the day yesterday it began to appear as if 92L may not have the strength to organize into a tropical storm. However, with this morning’s update there are indications of near tropical-storm-force winds coming from an NOAA buoy in the Atlantic used to measure storm wind speeds. An Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the storm this afternoon.
The storm is expected to reach Saint Martin during the day on Wednesday.
Here’s the full statement from the National Hurricane Center:
“An elongated area of low pressure located about 500 miles east of
the Windward Islands is producing a wide area of showers and
thunderstorms. Although recent satellite imagery suggests that the
system does not yet have a well-defined center, data from NOAA buoy
41040 indicate that the system is producing winds near
tropical-storm-force. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
is scheduled to investigate the system this afternoon and will
provide more information about the current state of the disturbance.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for additional
development and a tropical depression or tropical storm is likely to
form during the next couple of days while the system moves
west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph and approaches the Leeward
Islands. Regardless of development, locally heavy rain is likely
across portions of the Lesser Antilles beginning later today and
continuing through Wednesday, especially in the Leeward Islands.
These conditions will spread westward to the Virgin Islands and
Puerto Rico Wednesday night and Thursday. Interests on these islands
should continue to monitor the progress of this system and tropical
storm watches or warnings could be required for portions of the area
* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…90 percent.”